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My name is Max
Rudolph. I am a credentialed actuary and CFA charter holder working as a
strategic planning consultant and private investor in Omaha, Nebraska,
USA. I write a monthly newsletter, covering a variety of topics. Coverage is
mostly related to risk management and investments. Some are written at a
high level, dealing with the general economy, and some cover very specific
topics. The newsletters are educational in nature and do not constitute
investment advice. The newsletters are released publicly at
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Financial Predictions for 2011
Please remember that these
predictions are for fun. If I knew what was going to happen, I certainly
would not share that information with you! You must make your own decisions
regarding your unique financial circumstances and not hold others,
especially me, responsible for your own results. Enjoy!
Financial Predictions for 2011 – How Did They Turn Out?
Each of these predictions was made
at the beginning of 2011. Now it is December 2011 and each will be reviewed
for accuracy. Let’s find out how I did!
Politics, regional conflicts and
sovereign economic policies have a great impact on the worldwide economy,
take years to play out and have unintended consequences.
Economic variables are mean
reverting, cycling from low to high and back again. Bubbles and their
opposite occur regularly, although they are often hard to identify until
after the fact. Some of these can be recognized in advance, and the risk
manager who considers two for each one that occurs has added value. Some of
the potential bubbles likely to regress are commodities, treasuries,
municipals and emerging markets. Farmland is a longer term bubble.
Here are some of the events that
occurred in 2011. Natural disasters occur regularly and contingency plans
should be in place for them.
- Pakistani earthquakes
- Arab Spring –
- Japanese earthquake
- Icelandic volcano
- US storms (e.g.,
tornados in SE and Joplin Missouri, hurricane Irene
- US flooding in
Missouri river basin
- North Korean
- Tensions rising in
- European sovereign
Current likely bubbles
New emerging risks
- Space weather –
especially geomagnetic storms
- Systemic risks that
are non-financial in nature
- Supply chain higher
order concentrations (I might think I am diversifying my supply chain by
using multiple vendors, but if each of them uses the same supplier I
really have not reduced my risk)
These predictions were made in
- Politics: The US
political cycle lasts 4 years. The Democrats have lost their
supermajority in the Senate and President Obama is now trying to
reposition himself as a moderate prior to the next election. He will
struggle to implement health care reform and Dodd-Frank this year and
will be seen internationally more to position himself for the reelection
bid as a foreign policy expert. Tensions remain high on the Korean
Peninsula and in the Middle East. When King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
dies that will spark a period of uncertainty that could lead to an
outbreak of hostilities in that region. The Tea Party won some races and
it will be interesting to see how well they “play with others”. If they
can this will help the Presidential aspirations of someone like Sarah
Palin. This would make re-election of President Obama more likely as the
Tea Party is so far to the right that the Democrats can position
themselves as the sane alternative. Driven by the price of oil and
terrorism, numerous countries have the possibility of social unrest.
Countries most at risk are Iran, Venezuela, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi
Arabia and the Koreas. Sovereign debt issues in Europe could eventually
lead to the collapse of the Eurozone. This will be driven by Germany,
who will eventually get tired of supporting the other countries. When
they have had enough they will enter a path to world superpower along
with China. The risk of China experiencing an economic hard landing is
increasing. This could have major unintended consequences, everything
from an internal revolt to a selloff in US Treasuries to an armed
conflict. An interesting scenario with long term consequences would be a
joint US/China invasion of North Korea. In the short run it would ease
tensions but in the long run would provide the Chinese an opportunity to
size up how a potentially fading superpower would survive an attack that
could be direct or indirect, military or financial (many opponents have
underestimated the US in the past). The mismatch between males and
females due to the one child rule will have unintended consequences that
are hard to sort out (Gates Foundation efforts in the developing world
should also be watched). Unattached males make good soldiers, and mail
order brides from other parts of the world could cause immigration
- Results: Politics.
Correct. While the Arab Spring went surprisingly fast, many of these
thoughts played out as described. President Obama, now early in the
primary season, is gathering the faithful by moving to the left but has
tried to compromise at times and during the general campaign will move
to the center in a bid to woo independents. Health care and Dodd-Frank
have been a disaster so far. If the Republicans take Congress in 2012
both will be gutted. Tensions are high in Korea as the transition to
“The Great Successor” begins and in Syria, where the government is using
force to maintain control. The Tea Party has shown no interest in
compromise, dooming Sarah Palin’s Presidential hopes for now. As an Iowa
native, Michele Bachman is showing some strength there but it will be
tough for her to have momentum after the first few weeks of the primary
season. The European situation still seems to be waiting for Germany to
tell everyone else how it is going to play out. Tensions in China are
escalating, with a planned transition in 2013 coming about as
rural/urban pressure is increasing. The male/female issue has started to
play out, with integration of races an intriguing result with unintended
consequences. Will this encourage world peace, at least in the Asian
- Stocks: The stock
market’s run-up in late 2010 has left it susceptible to a correction,
but overall I believe we will remain in a trader’s market. It will
continue to be volatile in 2011, with large caps outperforming small
caps. I would be surprised to see below -5% or above 15% for the S&P500.
Over the next 10 years stocks will outperform both cash and especially
bonds. Bonds at low interest rates are hard to get excited about as we
prepare to enter an era of higher inflation. There is a slight chance of
hyperinflation in the United States, but it will take a few years to
develop before suddenly appearing. Good companies to buy now are ones
that can pass on their inflationary cost increases to their customers
like those in the transportation (e.g., railroads) and energy sectors.
Based on my filters here are a few companies that appear to be
undervalued based on publicly available information (not
recommendations, just ideas for further analysis): Whirlpool WHR, Tyco
Electronics TEL, HanesBrands HBI, Conoco Phillips COP, and Game Stop GME.
The S&P500 closed 2010 at 1257. Full disclosure: my family owns shares
in COP, TEL and HBI. None are controlling positions.
- Results: Stocks.
Correct. The US stock market ended up close to breakeven while
volatility increased. My prediction was not a strong one, but it was
right in general. The S&P closed 2010 at 1257.64, with a high of 1370
and a low of 1074, and ended 2011 in almost an identical position at
1257.60. Large caps have outperformed small caps.
- Unemployment: Fiscal
stimulus continues to help bottom out unemployment, but private
employers have been slow to start hiring. I expect unemployment to drop,
but not below 8.5%. Structural employment provides a floor of about 6%
now, and many public employers will be forced to cut back going forward.
Do municipal employees have the skills and culture necessary to succeed
in the private sector? Some do but many do not. Older workers will have
a tough time adapting to their new reality. Municipal bonds are a worry
in this regard. Once one state or large city defaults on their bonds the
entire market will see spreads spike and borrowing costs go through the
roof. What will the impact be on casualty insurers of this concentrated
asset exposure? Certainly this is an unintended consequence of tax
policy. I’d like to see the state run pension plans be consolidated
either into Social Security (at least for new employees) or into a
bigger pool that can attract more sophisticated managers.
The “survivors” at big firms are not
always the best and brightest, especially if layoffs were influenced by
seniority, and these firms will need to hire creative minds from outside to
succeed. Budget imbalances will eventually create inflation, but long term
treasuries will increase first, so watch for the yield curve to steepen in
2011. Taxes will not be impacted until unemployment returns to a more normal
level but will eventually need to rise. This will not occur at the federal
level until after the Presidential election. (I’m reading an article about
Greece and they say that the tax collectors don’t work in election years –
and they wonder why Greece has problems!) States, on the other hand, will
look for stealth tax increases through consumer basics like cell phone bills
but will eventually need to increase income and/or gas taxes.
Unemployment. Correct. The most recent unemployment rate in the US
is 8.6%, so I was dead on (somewhat surprisingly) here. Job growth has
been slow, resembling growth from the worst periods of the past century.
It is harder to rebound when both the private sector and public sector
need to deleverage. Companies continue to hoard their cash as they wait
for the many uncertainties surrounding the crisis aftermath to play out.
Many of the jobs being lost in 2011 were from the public sector. Many
older workers have been out of work for more than a year despite their
efforts to rejoin the marketplace. Several cities have defaulted (e.g.,
Pennsylvania state capital Harrisburg) and Detroit hangs in the balance,
but the diversity of municipal bond offerings has kept it from becoming
a major issue. Future promises of health and retirement benefits
continue to hang over this market. The yield curve 1 year rate moved
from 29 bp to 12 bp during the year and the 20 year rate moving from
4.13% to 2.73%, flattening the curve as the Fed implemented policy
designed to keep rates low for an extended period.
Securitization/Mortgages: The securitization markets will continue their
rebound. Capital requirement uncertainty will reduce and this will drive
consolidation of regional banks. Home mortgages will continue high
foreclosure rates, but all markets will not move together as regional
diversification returns to the marketplace and it begins to loosen.
Population will start to move to where the jobs are, for example away
from Illinois and toward the Dakotas. A decision needs to be made about
Fannie and Freddie in 2011 or it will enter the Presidential debates.
Securitization/Mortgages. Mildly correct and still a little early.
The market for homes is starting to clear out for low and mid-range
prices. It is reverting back to a market that varies by region. Some
regions will take a long time to recover (e.g., Las Vegas) while others
will free up more quickly where the overbuilding was not so prevalent.
The GSEs have not been addressed and could become a problem for
candidates with ties to them like Newt Gingrich. Growth is occurring in
apartment units as people turn their goals from home ownership to an
economic goal of low debt and moving out from their parents’ home.
- Volatility has itself
been volatile over the past couple of years. Too many investors are
looking at VIX as a predictor of the future and there are too many big
risks, both known and unknown, that should increase this statistic.
Although I have not proven good at predicting VIX I think it should be
in the 20-25 range right now instead of the actual 16.
Volatility. Correct. The VIX has had a wild ride. After closing 2010
at 17.75 it has had wild swings ranging from 14.27 to 48.00. It closed
2011 at 23.40.
- Oil: Oil is currently
about $90, toward the bottom end of my long-term mean reversion rate of
$80-120 range, but volatility continues to make short term predictions
very risky. If oil prices fall below $50, political instability in
Russia and South America will quickly follow. As the world economy
improves the price of oil should increase. Watch Venezuela for problems.
- Results: Oil.
Mildly correct. West Texas Intermediate closed out 2011at $99.75 per
barrel, in the middle of what has been a broad range in 2011 ($76 -
$114). The Venezuelan tension continues to build as Chavez fights cancer
(and blames the US for giving it to him). At some point his country will
blow up economically. Russian street protests are just getting started.
- Credit risk: the
market is once again allowing liberal covenants, so I am not sure what
the market actually learned. Government entities are at risk and a major
state or municipality in the US is likely to default on their bonds.
These governments have always pointed to their balanced budgets, but
accruals have not been honestly assessed. I don’t think the federal
government will take them over but some help will be made available.
Unions in general will have to deal with these unfunded benefits,
whether for legacy manufacturing firms, school districts, or
governments. Investigative reporters will find easy pickings and will
drive the market to make these balance sheets more transparent. Junk
bond spreads will widen.
- Results: Credit
risk. Wrong, or at least too early. This continues to play out as
junk bond spreads have narrowed. Journalists have been busy with various
Wall Street scams and the European sovereign debt crisis.
- Financial Services
Consolidation: Bank consolidation will continue, with mid-sized and
smaller banks merging to gain economies of scale and consumer trust.
Expenses at insurance companies are too high and industry overhead needs
to be reduced. Insurance consolidation will accelerate, with household
names and smaller firms being merged out of existence. Larger,
supposedly sophisticated, firms accepted the investment and product
risks knowingly, and many smaller firms were led along with the crowd to
the cliff by statements like “all the sophisticated insurers are doing
this”. In the long run I still expect to see a federal charter put in
place. Principles based approaches will fade as regulatory tools but
continue to be a competitive advantage for those companies that
recognize the shortcomings. Goldman Sachs will fight a public relations
battle and consider a return to the partnership model. This will reduce
transparency into their books. Why don’t people require a fiduciary
relationship when doing business with them? This would better align
their incentives with their customers.
- Results: Financial
Services Consolidation. Wrong, likely just too early. Smaller banks
are challenged in today’s market, with some going out of business and
others consolidating. Towers, a large consulting firm, continues to
gobble up its rivals, which I think is a leading indicator of
consolidation in the financial services industry. An investment research
project I completed in 2011 showed that there is concentration risk in
using a single metric to measure risk (like VaR). Now the banks are
trying to get one consistent framework internationally which will
increase the concentration risk already present. Here the US insurance
community has lucked into a better process, where multiple regulators
look at a company’s books.
Eventually the dollar will revert to its trend and fall based on
imbalances in our trade and borrowing policies. This will happen quicker
if another currency takes leadership from, or at least shares it with,
the dollar. Europe needs to get its rogue nations under control. If it
doesn’t Germany could become that country. China is the only other
realistic option and that is unlikely for another few years. They will
be better served by a basket of currencies and we will see a move in
that direction with France as head of the G-7 and G-20. Other scenarios
focus on countries heavily invested in dollars, such as China, Japan,
and the oil exporters, choosing to dump them. US Treasuries would then
spike and the US economy could find itself in a vicious cycle resulting
in stagflation. This would take several years to play out. Various
energy subsidies will play out here, from ethanol to wind farms, with
unintended consequences following the well intentioned efforts of
politicians. Unless another economy steps up to provide a flight to
safety option the dollar will only be down moderately in 2011 and will
go up if Spain flounders. Food inflation internationally will be high
and lead to riots and potentially regional violence as countries that
import try to reduce their dependency by force. Inflation is tied
closely to currency, and importers of food and oil will struggle. The
law of comparative advantage will be challenged as countries with food
will tighten their borders and make sure their own people are fed first.
This could lead to high inflation and social unrest in some emerging
Currency/Inflation. Wrong, too early. Things aren’t that great in
the US but are even worse elsewhere so the dollar remains the world’s
safe currency. We should not let this make us complacent. We need to
delever. The Euro/Dollar rate was volatile in 2011, ranging from its
start of 1.33 up to 1.48 in May and then down to a close of 1.29. This
has repercussions on the price of oil as well, although which one is the
driver is unclear to me.
- Energy subsidies:
Who knows what technology is not being worked on because of the
focus on only certain types of green technology? We can’t leave it
to government to determine optimal supply/demand balances. In the
long run the market will determine who wins, not the politicians.
Sometime in the next 5 years Hugo Chavez will either implode or try
to cut OPEC production of oil. He continues to nationalize firms
which will lead to poor performers and has already devalued his
currency. Venezuela has a really poor track record for paying their
- Global warming:
Governments naturally design complex systems, while simple solutions
are not given a chance to work. We need to move beyond a singular
focus on carbon dioxide. Watch for asset bubbles in farmland in the
US short-term, and long-term opportunities in northern countries
like Canada and Russia (longer term add Antarctica to this list) as
tundra becomes accessible as farmland or as a source of oil.
- Results: Global
warming. As weather patterns shift the types of crops that can
grow in northern climates will expand beyond wheat. The long awaited
northwest passage will become used commercially in the coming years.
- Fannie and Freddie
reform will get a lot of hot wind in 2011. With the 2012 election
looming it’s unclear if Congress will deal with them soon or ignore
them. In the meantime they continue to add to the government balance
- Results: GSE
reform. Correct. Unfortunately the easy bet was the winner in
2011. More to come.
- Continued low
interest rates by the Federal Reserve through the election – this
Fed is more political than I would like to see. The US is very
susceptible to a large catastrophe, financial disaster, or armed
conflict with a worthy foe. Look for copycat terrorism on September
11 this year.
interest rates/terrorism. It is unclear whether the terrorists
are inept or if the US security presence has improved but no
successful terrorist plots were completed on the 10th
anniversary of 9/11. The Fed publicly announced plans to keep rates
low indefinitely. This is a poor incentive for people to save as
those who have saved in the past are not rewarded. This is starting
to cause problems for institutional investors like pension plans and
insurance companies that provide a savings vehicle to the general
Emerging Risks - Concerns
- There are many
physical disasters that could happen, and a really bad one could
stimulate the country to work together and build cohesion. The political
tensions continue to increase as both sides posture. I continue to be
worried about unintended consequences of actions today, with GSE
liability still on the radar. The jobs recession will continue, but
investors and those already with jobs should be more secure once we get
past a flurry of layoffs early in the year. Inflation will remain low
while, longer term, Treasuries rise with anticipated future price
increases. The seeds of inflation are already planted. Government should
issue debt in longer term fixed instruments now while they can.
Otherwise the debt burden will grow so quickly with floating rate and
roll over debt that it will be hard to grow out of it. Foreclosures need
to occur for the housing supply to clear. It will be hard to move
forward until that happens.
- Results: Disasters.
The Joplin tornado was a great example of how a disaster can bring
out the best in people. It serves as a great example for us all. While
the private sector has started to add jobs in 2011 the public sector
continues to shed them. Late in the year revenues for local government
have been up over prior year. Hopefully as they add back positions they
will do so in an intelligent way and not just rebuilt the bureaucracy
and culture that previously prevailed.
- Levees in California,
earthquakes/volcanos, water poisoning of NYC, hackers of Windows – all
potential issues to develop contingent plans for.
- Results: Hackers.
We see instances of organized hacking on a regular basis, with much
of it coming from China and appearing to be government organized. Of
course the US has similar programs used by the military. One of the
interesting tidbits I read in 2011 was that US built copier machines
sent to Iraq had homing devices imbedded in them. Pretty smart but will
make it tougher for American exporters in the future.
- Can an internal CRO be
strong enough to stand up and be counted, or will fears for their job
keep them “in line”? Every firm needs a Chief Skeptical Officer. There
is career risk to doing your job as a Chief Risk Officer. Speaking out,
even (or especially) if you are accurate, does not lead to a long
career. Perhaps independent skeptics should be hired by regulators and
rating agencies to get contrarian opinions. NAIC risk focused exams
could be so much more useful than they are so far, and rating agencies
have perceived/real conflicts of interest since the company being rated
pays for the rating. I am usually a big fan of Berkshire Hathaway, but
Moody’s should not issue ratings for them. They are a major shareholder
and it is a huge conflict of interest. Companies are doing Enterprise
Risk Management for compliance purposes with external stakeholders
rather than to help make better decisions. This means that those who
take that next step have a competitive advantage over those who don’t.
- Tort reform needed –
the world continues to become more litigious at its peril
- Infectious disease -
increased resistance to antibiotics (e.g., tuberculosis, staff
infections or pneumonia). It is getting more dangerous to visit a
- Global warming –
unexpected side effects like new viral/bacterial attacks, along with
coastal flooding and increased hurricane activity. Changing climate will
alter weather patterns, making areas more or less prone to moisture and
- Terrorism – so far
external terrorists have shown themselves not to be very smart, but they
are very determined. A greater risk in the US is that the political
rhetoric creates followers who will “fight” for their cause
- Earthquakes and
hurricanes – the US is overdue for a major quake on the west coast and
other areas not normally suspected of seismic activity (e.g., Seattle,
Yellowstone, St. Louis, New York City) are well into their cycle. The US
is also due for a strong hurricane season.
capital in the financial services industry appears to be dead in the
water as Basel becomes the standard (no diversification benefits, silo
risk management). The NAIC, under Teri Vaughan, has started to put
together a solid national staff. This has been needed for years, and
adding Larry Bruning is a great addition. They should go outside their
team for contrarian opinions.
- Home building sector
will finish bottoming and level or slightly improve over the next couple
of years depending on interest rates (up would be worse). It will take
longer for the upscale market to recover. It is time to buy stocks in
materials firms that serve this market and have low debt. A tax overhaul
when it occurs will cap the mortgage deduction.
- US political
environment – can they say no to anyone requesting a bailout? Who is
next? Will the Fed allow a state to default on its debt? Illinois and
California are trying to tax their way out of a problem but that will
send jobs elsewhere and have unintended consequences that have not been
- Malthus – too many
people, not enough food – will good intentions of the rich to save lives
in the 3rd world lead to mass starvation and unstable regions
in the longer term? Genetically modified seeds will delay this into the
future. Perhaps it will never happen, but unstable regions develop where
there is low economic activity and lots of people.
- Economy – risk of
stagflation and the lack of an internal hedge for investors holding both
equities and bonds. There is currently a large interest rate risk in
long bonds. Make sure you are laddered so you grade to the current rates
as they rise. Borrowing firms and governments with a high percentage in
short duration bonds will default when the debt coverage spikes.
- Pandemic influenza –
2009 provided a test that countries and businesses should learn from.
What is scary is the ability to create these superbugs in the lab. At
some point terrorists (or someone entrusted to guard the bugs) will
create a pandemic of some kind as Tom Clancy wrote about years ago (his
example was Ebola).
- Results: Pandemic
influenza. Recent research extended this debate further as
scientists took a benign pathogen and made it able to spread in airborne
form. This will get to terrorists at some point or, more likely, will
- Counterparty risk –
will losses be allowed? AIG provided a great example of concentration
risk, although I wish someone would show me where the money went and how
it was repaid. A central clearing house is needed that keeps track of
net exposures. How do we keep a clearinghouse from increasing systemic
risk itself? How Bernie Madoff survived all these years is a mystery to
me. Where was the investor due diligence? Much of the US economy
continues to be concentrated in a few parties, and now the American
taxpayer is one of them. This is not a positive consequence and will
lead to more systemic risk and higher correlation in the tails. More
qualitative analysis needs to be done by financial experts rather than
relying on models that aren’t accurate in the tail. Relying on Black-Scholes
models to determine both value and prices has been a disaster. If you
can’t understand a risk without complicated mathematics it should be
avoided. We need to spend more time learning from history.
- Concentration risk –
this will be a hot topic over the next few years much as emerging risks
have become. Whether it is power at the top of an organization, short
term liquidity, geographic focus or silo risk focus, too much
concentration in too few entities or people is a great risk. Eventually
it will take you down.
- Risk combinations –
risk managers tend to anchor based on current events and have trouble
getting their hands around how multiple risks interact.
Top Actuarial Issues
- Defined benefit plan
valuation – needs to reflect marketplace economics, mean reversion and
conservatism. Valuation methods have led defined benefit plans to be
little more than a Ponzi scheme, relying on inflation to reduce the
value to the retiree and the expense to the employer. Everyone needs to
save for their own future. Actuaries and investment professionals from
other disciplines should be welcomed, along with those from outside the
profession. Focus should be on cash flows rather than regulatory
requirements. An estimate of fair value of these liabilities should be
calculated and shared with stakeholders. Municipal plans and teacher
plans are especially likely to default. This may be the issue that
causes unions to lose power.
- Demographics –
designing products that are economically sound to both policy owner and
company. Variable annuity writers seemed to have learned and adjusted
with their new products, but have reverted back to features that make no
sense to me. Why is it conservative to force asset allocations toward
bonds in a low interest rate environment? Have insurers considered a
hyperinflation scenario? They should.
Demographics. Several writers of VA products have recently left the
market. There are rumors of mispriced products that insurers continue to
sell in volume. It’s likely not a good scenario if you met your sales
goals in VA for 2011. I wonder how many incentive plans have adjusted
- Obesity – how will the
various drivers of mortality and morbidity interact (some good, some
- Lack of rudimentary
knowledge of assets and how to value them – need teaching sessions that
are short of stochastically based financial economics. Focus on
transparency and peer review. An actuary’s primary skill is discounting
contingent events. This skill set is valued outside insurance and
pensions too if you are a strategic thinker.
- Peer review – how to
make it extend beyond a regulatory requirement to help manage the
business by identifying and exploiting advantages as part of a strategic
planning process. Making someone accountable does not preclude the need
for outside opinions and skepticism.
- National health care –
we continue to need actuarial solutions with transparency. Tort reform
is not happening but is necessary for cost reductions. Will health care
reform be repealed? No. The votes aren’t there. The Republicans will
attack it through funding mechanisms and making the legislation
difficult to implement.
- Results: National
health care. Another ongoing saga that is playing out as expected.
There will be lots of bluster before the 2012 election but the courts
are driving the process right now.
- Systemic risk – this
is another topic where actuaries can help but are not being engaged. I
personally don’t think systemic risk can be managed effectively due to
the political pressure surrounding the topic.
What follows are a base set of
scenarios that companies/individuals could use to plan for the next few
years. Some analysis will reflect quantitative tools but all should look at
the risks on a qualitative basis first. When models are used for extreme
scenarios they do not perform very well.
- Higher interest rates
and inflation: use deterministic scenarios grading 3% per year until you
get to 12% or a mean reversion process that does the same would provide
some eye-opening results.
- NEW FOR 2011 –
qualitatively consider a 20% inflationary environment
- Flat equity markets
combined with higher inflation
- Health care reform –
qualitatively how would that impact your business?
- Falling dollar – could
combine with high interest rate scenario
- Global climate change
– how will this impact your business
Warning and disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is the
opinion of Max Rudolph and is provided for general information only. It
should not be considered investment advice. Information from a variety of
sources should be reviewed and considered before decisions are made by the
individual investor. My opinions may have already changed, so you don’t want
to rely on them. Have fun!